The Kansas City quarterback has shown that even the most talented squads can be destroyed by his postseason magic. Is the Big Game this year going to be any different?
You will hear all this week about the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs playing in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, and how the events of that night in Miami four years ago may have an influence on Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.
Yes, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid are still the coaches. John Lynch and Brett Veach are also general managers. In addition, there are still a ton of talents, such as Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, undefined, Deebo Samuel, and Fred Warner. This is the reason why a large portion of the window dressing in locations like the Fontainebleau in Miami and Las Vegas is identical.
Apart from that, what? Super Bowl LVIII is as much about these companies’ ability to pivot, reload, and change as it is about their continuity and the groundwork they have laid. The quarterback for the 49ers is not the same as it was four years ago. Of the 10 starting offensive linemen from LIV, none are still with San Francisco. There are just eighteen players remaining, including specialists, injured players, and everyone else. The offensive coordinators for both teams have left, and the defensive coordinators for one club have switched twice.
In summary, the game has changed significantly from 48 months ago, when COVID-19 was only a minor issue for Americans and the world was on the verge of shutting down.
The dynamics and matches must thus be reexamined. We’ll carry that out.
First, though, there’s one aspect of the Patrick Mahomes team’s first triumph that may have significance for this Sunday’s contest: the quarterback’s erasing ability. Super Bowl LIV appeared to herald the 49ers under Shanahan as the NFL’s next great dynasty for the first fifty-one minutes. They were ahead 20 to 10. As a rookie at the time, Bosa was perhaps the game’s MVP. Throughout the whole game, San Francisco maintained control. They took the lead in the third quarter and intercepted Mahomes to begin the fourth.
Then all changed with No. 15. In addition to the 38-yard bomb to Sammy Watkins and the 44-yard toss to Tyreek Hill on third-and-15, there were drives of 83 and 65 yards. In addition, there was the deluge of negative energy directed on a San Francisco group that collapsed under his relentless pressure. Three years later, a same tale was recounted, with a seemingly in control Eagles team giving up late to a Mahomes rally.
In both situations, Patrick Mahomes grabbed every aspect of how those games were proceeding and threw it out of the window, creating his own narrative to replace your preconceived notions. And now here we are once more, with a 49ers squad filled with extraordinary talent and designed for the present, attempting to overcome the NFL’s championship vampire.
An AFC executive told me on Sunday, “It feels like David vs. Goliath at quarterback, but vice versa everywhere else.” “This 49ers team is superior, but the quarterback in Kansas City is better.”
That plotline provides us all a fantastic place to start in a Super Bowl packed with plots and stories.
We have a lot to cover because the coaching carousel is moving more slowly. Thus, you’ll discover in this week’s takeaways…
• Our rundown of how Dan Quinn became the next head coach of the Washington Commanders.
• The narrative surrounding the Los Angeles Chargers’ attempt to sign Jim Harbaugh.
• What the Tampa Bay Bucs’ intentions at quarterback may reveal to us with the signing of Liam Coen.
And much, much more. We wanted to give it a few more days of work, so we’ll have something fairly interesting on how the Niners have grown individuals in the coming days. This was originally supposed to be the lead for this week. Instead, we’re going to start with what we hope to see in Super Bowl LVIII.
So, yes, we can begin this one with the 49ers’ galaxy of them vs the Chiefs’ bright light.
Patrick Mahomes’s historical position
The fact that we’ve already arrived, with Patrick Mahomes at 28 years old, is incredible. However, it’s alright. We can talk about it. If he wins, he will move up to second place behind only Tom Brady and Joe Montana on the all-time playoff victories list, breaking a five-way tie with Peyton Manning, Steve Young, John Elway, and Terry Bradshaw. We talk about it because he will go 15-3 in the postseason if it happens. Then, he’ll tie Troy Aikman for third place on the list, behind only Brady, Montana, and Bradshaw, so we can talk about it.
The seventh-year professional has been moving quickly. That is not to suggest he will be able to maintain it as long as Brady did for 24 years. However, if he succeeds? Brady’s crown may face competition far sooner than anybody could have predicted.
The Niners’ position in the modern NFL. The largest cap figure on the Niners’ books for 2023 is $12.58 million. This fact sprang off the page when I completed my yearly roster study of the NFL’s four conference finalists two weeks ago. That’s even though they have eight players on their roster who bring home at least $15 million annually. And that, naturally, only occurs when a team is fully leveraged.
In fact, the Niners have ten players with cap numbers that exceed $14 million for the next season, and their combined liabilities exceed $210 million. A little bit over $240 million is anticipated to be the ceiling for 2024. Eight players on the Niners are also expected to have cap numbers over $14 million in 25. Of course, you may rearrange things and delay payments for a while, but ultimately someone has to pay the piper.
The victory won’t last indefinitely.
Is now the time for Steve Spagnuolo? When I inquired about the one thing one AFC scouting director was looking forward to in this one, he answered, “I would say the play-calling matchup, with Spagnuolo vs. Shanahan.”
In 2019, Spagnuolo joined the Chiefs as a rookie. With a half-decade’s worth of off-seasons to choose players for their scheme, Veach and his staff have assembled a versatile, astute, youthful defense this season, led by a master coordinator who is able to maneuver all the movable pieces he has on that side of the ball. If you ask him, Spagnuolo will tell you what he thinks he has in that unit.
He remarked, “I’ve been attempting to explain to people what we have.” “I’ve never had so many defensive players who are also very intelligent football players—they’re really passionate about the game.” I’ve previously had some really intelligent players. Anthony Hitchens and Tyrann Mathieu. Though there have always been many intelligent individuals, the current population is astounding. LJ Seed, Nick Bolton, Dru Tranquill, Leo Chanel, and Trent McDuffie.
They all like playing, too. Everybody knows a guy who is infatuated with things and is always making blunders. There aren’t many of them men here. That makes all the difference in the world, enabling you to carry out your discussion.
Consequently, are the Chiefs able to force the Niners outside of their comfort zone in the same manner as they did the Baltimore Ravens? Saying that one football team is pressuring another to play on its “terms” might seem cliched. However, Kansas City’s defense precisely punished the Baltimore Ravens’ offense in that same manner last week. Whether they do the same to San Francisco might be the game’s deciding factor; if they do, the Niners will have to play from behind and frequently encounter less advantageous down-and-distance scenarios, just like they did last week.
An NFC executive stated, “The 49ers can’t give up on the run like the Ravens did, even if they’re down early like the Ravens were.” The Chiefs’ pass defense and pressure packages are exceptional, so Brock Purdy and the offense cannot win the game with third-and-6s or less. Conversely, the Chiefs are obviously unable to limit Patrick Mahomes’ amount of possessions and give the 49ers any opportunity to exploit this deficiency.
In fact, throughout the regular season, the Ravens averaged 31.8 running attempts and 156.5 yards a game. In the divisional round, they erupted for 229 yards on 42 carries against the Houston Texans. They only ran it 16 times for 81 yards against the Chiefs. After the half, they only ran the ball seven times. Kansas City transformed the top seeds into fish out of water by chasing them with run blitzes and creating negative plays. That cannot be permitted by the Niners.
Which defense is going to step up to the plate? The totality of the evidence may indicate that these clubs have greater talent on defense than on offensively. In actuality, the data support it as well. An AFC assistant general manager stated, “One thing that stands out—if you look at the Super Bowl teams every year, the QBs and offenses get headlines, but once again, two of the top 10 defenses in the NFL are in this game.” “In January, defense still matters.”
The executive then mentioned that the two clubs are ranked second and third in scoring defense and ninth and second in overall defense, respectively. So, when it matters most, one or the other might undoubtedly win.
We have already discussed the potential outcomes if Kansas City’s defense performs well. A scouting director also emphasized to me the significance of fundamental tackling for the Chiefs, since they will be facing a formidable and tough bunch of San Francisco skill players. Regarding the Niners, it will be intriguing to observe the kind of performance they receive from a defensive line group that is perhaps the best in the NFL, but hasn’t always performed up to par. Coordinator Steve Wilks recently called the group out for lack of effort.
The factor of Travis Kelce.
Throughout the regular season, the nine-time Pro Bowler wasn’t quite himself. Although he still had 984 yards and 93 catches, his touchdowns and yards per catch average had significantly decreased. Additionally, based on the eye test, it appeared that age and injuries were starting to catch up with him.
After the playoffs started, Kelce was, well, himself once more. By acknowledging both his own and others around him’s limits, he has performed better. He’s trying to open up early in the route as a result, giving Mahomes more opportunities to get him the ball more quickly. Currently, the new issue in handling the Chiefs offense is the same one all over again.
“Is there any way San Francisco can get rid of Kelce? In the playoffs, nobody truly has yet, according to a second AFC scouting director. “When I play them, I use every physical effort to ensure that any other skilled player cannot defeat me. Mahomes is at his best in scramble drills, and Kelce is always a free agent there, but I’m finding a way to double him every time out so the rest of their offense can defeat you. Everywhere else, call it nine-man football.
This may therefore convert Rashee Rice, a rookie, into a crucial player.
And then there’s the supporting material. Will Taylor Swift be there for the match? How often does CBS feature her? What is the halftime show like? (I can’t even recall who is performing.) And how will the league’s 180-degree turn on sports gambling and all the issues NFL fans can find here interact with this week’s events given that it’s taking place in Las Vegas?
When all is considered, there is much to be excited about. However, a lot of it boils down to this formidable team facing this formidable quarterback.
Another AFC executive stated, “If Patrick Mahomes is playing well, it’s just hard, much like it was with Brady.” “He has a greater than 50% chance of outplaying your quarterback, and that team usually prevails when that occurs.”
The Niners have an easy task ahead of them on Sunday.
