The World Series winners were one of six teams that changed the course of events in the previous season. Next up, who?
Cactus League and Grapefruit League games will soon start, and spring camp is already well underway. Exhibition games may be entertaining in their own right, but let’s face it: they become old fast. Since the postseason is when the stakes are highest, we all want high-stakes baseball. Additionally, there have never been more postseason games because of the 12-team structure.
Six clubs, including the National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks and the World Series winner Texas Rangers, made the playoffs last year after missing out on the postseason in 2022. The six new postseason teams from last year had the same turnover rate as the ten-team field which fluctuated by around 50% from year to year under the previous arrangement.
The five 2023 postseason teams most likely to miss the 2024 postseason have previously been examined by R.J. Anderson. Instead, it is our purpose here. We’ll examine the five clubs who, while missing out on the postseason in 2023, are most likely to return in 2024 because, among other things, they have strengthened their squad over the offseason, are healthier, have fewer formidable opponents in their division, etc.
The five teams who have the highest chance of making the 2024 postseason after playing all of October at home are listed here, in order of most likely to qualify after missing out on the playoffs the previous season.
1. New York Yankees
It’s not exactly risky to include a club with a $300 million payroll, but the New Yankees finished 82-80 last year, their worst season in thirty years. They also weren’t all that close to making the playoffs. Despite a strong finish that saw them go 17-10 in September, they ended up seven games behind a wild-card place and 19 games out of the AL East.
The Yankees decided to take a serious go at their deficiencies after that 82-80 result. The greatest hitter to switch clubs this summer was Juan Soto, and to bolster an outfield that struggled in the two non-Aaron Judge slots last season, New York also got Alex Verdugo. They are both left-handed high-contact hitters, something the Yankees desperately needed. At homerun-crazed Yankee Stadium, Marcus Stroman offers consistency amid the rotation and the ability to keep the ball in the park.
Better health is another realistic objective. After jamming his toe into a tiny, exposed area of the Dodgers’ outfield wall, Judge missed two months of action. When Anthony Rizzo was thrown into the path of the runner, he sustained a concussion. Those are injuries of misfortune. Baseball-related injuries befell Nestor Cortes (shoulder) and Carlos Rodón (forearm, back). Compared to Judge and Rizzo, who suffered injuries on unlucky plays rather than during regular baseball play, they are more susceptible to injuries.
In the end, each league has six postseason slots, and the Yankees have four of them up for grabs (spoiler alert: they won’t win the AL Central or AL West). Over the winter, they added more than simply talented players. They brought in quality players who excel at the things the Yankees failed to achieve in 2023. They did a good job of attending to their requirements. The Yankees’ ability to bounce back from a season filled with setbacks is demonstrated by their 82-80 record. The Yankees won’t give up. As awful as possible. Ignore them at your peril.
2. Seattle Mariners
Though atypical, the Mariners’ offseason has been busy. Eugenio Suárez, Jarred Kelenic, and Teoscar Hernández decided to move on since reducing strikeouts was a top objective. Higher contact rates are provided by Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco, while Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger should add more thump to a lineup that lacked it in the previous season.
Seattle made all those adjustments without increasing salary, which, to be honest, raises doubts about ownership’s commitment given that their estimated Opening Day payroll is lower this year than it was last year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. What makes the 2024 payroll less than the payrolls for 2016–19? G.M. Jerry Dipoto deserves praise for reinventing his offense despite financial constraints.
Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby at the top of the rotation are unmatched by many teams, and Matt Brash and Andrés Muñoz together after games are one of the most formidable combinations. Last season, everyone had strikeout rates that were above 30%. Whether the offense can sustain the pitching more effectively than it did the previous season is the issue. Reducing the number of batters who strike out frequently should be beneficial.
In 2023, Seattle was eliminated from the postseason by just one game. They missed the opportunity to secure a position heading into the last week. The Houston Astros are already experiencing with pitching problems in training, while the Rangers have serious concerns about their rotation. That and the AL Central’s lackluster performance help the Mariners secure a wild-card berth at the very least.
3. Cincinnati Reds
I love the youthful talent of this team. Combined for 14.4 WAR last season, Andrew Abbott, Will Benson, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer provide a formidable foundation. The Reds will also be receiving more youthful talent. Hunter Greene should be able to continue playing in 2024, along with Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
Cincinnati’s chances of making the playoffs may depend on De La Cruz. He has such amazing skills. He’s electric. He’s the sort of athlete who has the potential to rise to the top 25 in the sport. De La Cruz was also visible as he made his way back to Triple-A. This profile is highly boom-or-bust. The Reds will make the playoffs if De La Cruz has a big season. They head home if he loses it.
The team’s floor was increased more than its ceiling by the Reds’ busy summer. That’s okay too. Things will be stabilized by veterans like Jeimer Candelario and Nick Martinez, while Frankie Montas has an upside with a sound shoulder. The Reds are here mostly due to their youthful talent, though. There’s enough of it, and young teams may make rapid progress.
Cincinnati ended only two games off of a wild-card place last season after going 56-47 in their last 103 games, or slightly under two-thirds of a 162-game schedule. The top-heavy is the NL. With elite young talent spread over the field, the Reds should be able to secure a wild-card position this upcoming season with as little as 84 victories.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had a really bad season last year. It took Willson Contreras six months to become the regular starting shortstop in favor of Yadier Molina; Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt both had the worst 162-game seasons; the rotation was unable to miss bats at all; and so on. A 10–24 lead overwhelmed them. There was no way to escape that abyss.
The Cardinals signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, and while I don’t think much of them, they should at least provide innings, as they did not receive enough from their starters in the previous year. The AL Cy Young runner-up, Sonny Gray, makes a difference. Corbin Burnes is possibly the greatest starter in the division now that he has been moved. A starter as talented as Gray hasn’t been on St. Louis’ roster in a couple of years.
Jordan Walker had a very strong debut campaign. Although it improved from being unplayable at the beginning of the season to passable by the conclusion, his defense was subpar overall. Even though 2024 will only be his second season as a full-time outfielder, he showed progress and should go even further. Masyn Winn will add much-needed agility and strengthen the defense at short.
The Cardinals are, at least theoretically, the most improved club in the division, while the Milwaukee Brewers bid farewell to Burnes (and Brandon Woodruff, who was allegedly re-signed to a two-year contract, but he’ll probably miss most or all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery). Like the Reds, St. Louis can still make the playoffs since 84 victories may be enough to secure a wild-card place. This group carries a significant age-related risk. There are more grounds for optimism that they will be superior.
5. Chicago Cubs
The final post was quite difficult. There’s a good reason the Cleveland Guardians should be here. The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres already do, and the New York Mets might be included as well. I was apprehensive to have three NL Central clubs here, but that’s a personal issue. Three NL Central clubs ought to be present if they deserve to be here.
The Cubs appear to be planning a big move, most likely the re-signing of Cody Bellinger. They haven’t made that significant change yet, though, and despite Bellinger’s All-Star-caliber performance last year, they were eliminated from the postseason. To be honest, Bellinger was the additional bat that Chicago needed during the previous season. He’s a free agent now.
The Cubs in 2024 might be better than the ones in 2023, even without Bellinger. While anticipating Seiya Suzuki to play so well for the whole season is unrealistic, given his incredible second half of last season (.938 OPS), it is hoped that he can be more reliable from Game 1 through Game 162. Some in the game admire Shota Imanaga, but Michael Busch provides more potential than any player Chicago had at first base last year.
The Cubs just missed the postseason the previous year, but they have some youthful talent on the horizon in the form of Ben Brown, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and others, and it seems like they’ll make a big move before Opening Day. Their current chances of making the postseason are less due to their summer progress and more due to a somewhat weaker Brewers squad and an open wild-card field.
