The longtime Dodgers mainstay Justin Turner, the kind of player who makes you wonder when the term “professional hitter” in baseball ever stopped being used in everyday speech, has a new job. Turner is heading west to Toronto, where he will receive $13 million this season with the possibility of earning an extra $1.5 million in bonuses and incentives. Turner had one season in Boston, when things went rather well for him personally but not as well for his club.
Now, if you’re anything like me, you undoubtedly wondered, “Wait, didn’t Turner come up with the Orioles around the same time Guerrero père was winding down his career there?” when you heard that Turner and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be sharing an infield (and/or DH spot). As it happened, he did. Though he did play with his new teammate’s father, Justin Turner is not merely that old. He played four years of college, was drafted, played parts of two seasons in the majors with the Orioles, spent three seasons in the minors, and was traded away before the father of his new teammate arrived. That’s how old he is.
Justin Turner recently turned 39, or 39 years old in Canada when the exchange rate is taken into consideration. I looked it over. For someone who spent their early twenties pursuing a doctorate in the humanities while their friends were having families and establishing successful careers, that is a rather young age. (Your entire life is still ahead of you! I have faith in you! But for a ballplayer, it’s dated. Especially a player with a contract that says he is expected to be a major player on a club that makes the playoffs.
Justin Turner was so old that he was a member of the Cal State Fullerton baseball team where Chad Cordero played in college. Together, they qualified for the 2003 College World Series (along with Ricky Romero, for those Blue Jays fans who are reading this and wanted to recall some folks). These are a few of the players they faced throughout that year’s NCAA Tournament.
Some Players Justin Turner Encountered En Route to the 2003 College World Series:
| Player | Team | Last MLB Season |
| Sam Fuld | Stanford | 2015 |
| Arizona Ryan Garko | Stanford | 2010 |
| Carlos Quentin | Stanford | 2014 |
| Jed Lowrie | Stanford | 2022 |
| Brian Wilson | LSU | 2014 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Arizona State | 2019 |
| Andre Ethier | State | 2017 |
That is, in fact, Sam Fuld, who will soon begin his fourth season as an MLB general manager. And Brian Wilson, who, an astonishing 13 years ago, introduced bondage gear and beard dye to the baseball world.
Turner would not have been available to the Blue Jays for just $13 million, of course, if he had not been old enough to have used a portable tape player on a daily basis. Turner was a consistent 140–150 wRC+ hitter in his early 30s, and he was unquestionably among the top hitters in baseball.
He hit.276/.345/.455 in 2023, good for a wRC+ of 114. You may assume that his home field of Fenway Park, where he bats right-handed, somewhat favoured him offensively. Turner, meanwhile, only posted a 113 wRC+ at home and a 116 wRC+ while travelling. With a wRC+ of 142, he also dominated left-handed pitching, hitting.285/.372/.528.
But Justin Turner is obviously not going to be a platoon bat on the short side. You might argue that Toronto’s six greatest returning hitters are all right-handed anyhow between Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, and what the heck, let’s toss in Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider as well. Not that Toronto has ever been really troubled by being mainly right-handed.
Turner’s bat has been declining over the last four years or so, both in terms of output and contact quality, but he still has a ways to go before he is no longer effective because he started from such a high base.
Justin Turner, Past Five Years
| Year | wRC+ | HardHit% | Barrel% |
| 2019 | 131 | 43.2 | 7.6 |
| 2020 | 138 | 44.0 | 11.2 |
| 2021 | 126 | 42.4 | 7.9 |
| 2022 | 124 | 40.6 | 8.0 |
| 2023 | 114 | 38.7 | 5.7 |
Justin Turner is the kind of player who will continue to hit offensively until his bat slows down due to age. And it may all fall at once, or it could happen gradually, as it appears to be doing. His 2023 performance versus four-seamers was below average for the first time since Baseball Savant began tracking those metrics, so if you were searching for a concerning indication, that would be it.Justin Turner isn’t as good against velocity in particular as he was five years ago, but it too appears to be a slow decline.
Justin Turner vs. 95-Plus mph
| Year | Pitch % | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
| 2019 | 13.0 | .277 | .360 | .415 | .335 | .353 |
| 2020 | 15.0 | .182 | .357 | .227 | .290 | .392 |
| 2021 | 14.8 | .239 | .337 | .432 | .335 | .338 |
| 2022 | 19.1 | .192 | .316 | .231 | .260 | .298 |
| 2023 | 19.7 | .231 | .328 | .317 | .294 | .298 |
Considering only Turner’s offensive potential, it seems sense to sign him to a one-year contract for between $13 million and $14.5 million. Even though Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Rhys Hoskins all have multi-year guarantees, I think I’d like to have them at their respective AAVs. Mitch Garver, who would have caused Toronto even more trouble, did the same thing. The Blue Jays require another bat-first catcher as badly as they need a poke in the eye.
Turner provides a defensive contribution that Hoskins and Gurriel are unable to provide. Toronto has players at catcher, designated hitter, and the outfield, but they need depth at second and third base, where Turner spent last season playing for Boston.
Would Turner be welcome to perform there? Well, not at all. He is among baseball’s slowest players, and his advanced defensive stats are atrocious. I want to express my regret for my initial thoughts regarding Jorge Polanco’s glovework when the news of his Monday night trade to Seattle emerged. However, if you really want to give Turner a glove and put him on the ground, I suppose you could.
The Blue Jays have a pretty good combination in Turner, Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none,” remarked legendary coach John Madden. However, the legendary player refrained from discussing the outcome of having five third basemen.
It’s important to note that the Blue Jays are back in the competitive balance tax for a second straight season after signing Turner, pushing them over the payroll cap they reached last season. Turner’s $13 million salary is meaningless taken out of context, and the Blue Jays exceeding the tax threshold isn’t really significant either.
Justin Turner will likely be a valuable offensive player, but his lack of defensive and baserunning ability may ultimately cause him to earn less than Toronto’s departing third baseman, Matt Chapman, who also attended Fullerton, which is a curious fact. Since Chapman’s 2017 debut, Turner has outhit him every year; but, the majority of the time, he has returned a significant portion of that offensive worth with the glove.
Whether Turner can assist the Blue Jays is not the question. Of course he can. The question is not so much whether the Blue Jays are signing Turner in place of or in addition to someone who could be of more assistance to them.
