The majority of Hall of Famers aren’t immediately apparent, but these six guys are headed that way if history is any guide.
The resounding victory of Adrián Beltré serves as a reminder that Hall of Famers are unpredictable, even those who came in first place on the ballot.
Beltré slashed through the age of thirty.271/.325/.454 had never been selected to an All-Star squad and had just once in his twelve years been voted MVP. Rubén Sierra was his closest competitor. He was on the Hall of Fame Highway, but no one believed him.
From his renowned “pillow contract” season with Boston at age 31, to his four All-Star teams, Beltré’s career saw him slash.307/.358/.514, and seven of those nine seasons saw him named MVP.
Beltré batted.307 and hit 227 home runs starting at age 31. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Edgar Martínez, Barry Bonds, and Manny Ramirez were the only six players to accomplish that feat.
Compare Beltré’s career trajectory to that of Andruw Jones, who, although on the verge of Cooperstown, collapsed at the age of 30 (.210/.316/.424, OPS+ 92). It can be challenging to predict the Hall. I seem to recall hearing that Adam Dunn was expected to hit 600 home runs and Steve Sax to reach 3,000 hits.
In actuality, 57% of the Hall of Famers chosen by the Baseball Writers Association of America did not come from the first ballot. Even after their first 12 seasons in the major leagues, the majority are not readily apparent.
A few players who are currently in the running for Cooperstown are Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper. However, what about those who might not be as visible?
These are a few current players who have one measurement standing in their way of being inducted into the Hall: With the same number of career games, they have a Hall of Fame doppelgänger. As demonstrated by Beltré and Jones, it is impossible to predict how their careers will turn out, but for the time being they are on the Hall of Fame Highway.
1. Aaron Judge is tracking Ralph Kiner.
It’s not a comp that will last long. When Kiner reached 835 games, he was 28 years old, and he finished at age 32. Aaron Judge is signed through age 39 and will turn 32 in April. Kiner required 15 votes to win, despite finishing with 369 home runs. Aaron Judge ought to easily surpass Kiner’s results. However, the comparison highlights that Aaron Judge is already within striking distance of the Hall at his prime.
| Player | Avg. | SLG | OPS | HR | TB |
| Judge | .282 | .586 | .982 | 257 | 1,762 |
| Kilner | .285 | .578 | .982 | 238 | 1,743 |
2. Paul Goldschmidt has Mike Schmidt’s appearance.
At 36, Goldschmidt has played in 13 seasons as a veteran. He’s a long way down the road. The bar is still high because Schmidt continued to be a dominant hitter past this age (135 OPS+). Goldschmidt sits at 143 and Schmidt finished with an OPS+ of 148. This indicates that while Goldschmidt is not on par with Schmidt, he is similar enough to a Hall of Famer selected on the first ballot to warrant careful observation.
| Player | OPS | OBP | RBI | SB | TB |
| Goldschmidt | .907 | .388 | 1,122 | 158 | 3,386 |
| Schmidt | .917 | .384 | 1,169 | 166 | 3,277 |
3. José Ramírez is comparable to Beltré.
They play the game with similar joy and offensive numbers. It will be hard for Ramírez to stay up with Beltré because he had an incredible second stage of his career.
| Player | Avg. | H | TB | HR | OPS |
| Ramírez | .279 | 1,293 | 2,376 | 216 | .854 |
| Beltré | .270 | 1,283 | 2,164 | 194 | .784 |
4. Rafael Devers slugs like Reggie Jackson.
These two powerful left-handed sluggers can also swing and miss. When Jackson was 27 years old and the MVP in 1973, he played in 842 games and finished his career with 563 home runs. Last season, Devers was a player at age 26.
| Player | HR | RBI | SLG | OPS | SO |
| Devers | 172 | 490 | .510 | .853 | 747 |
| Jackson | 170 | 475 | .496 | .852 | 829 |
5. Gerrit Cole is a combination of Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay.
The three pitchers’ respective winning percentages and total victories are comparable. Cole’s strikeout rate and ERA are more like that of Johnson, while his command is more like that of Halladay.
| Player | W-L | Pct. | ERA | IP | BB | SO |
| Cole | 145-75 | .659 | 3.17 | 1,859 | 471 | 2,152 |
| Johnson | 145-80 | .644 | 3.37 | 2,008.1 | 957 | 2,343 |
| Halladay | 142-69 | .673 | 3.45 | 1,948.2 | 440 | 1,410 |
6. Shohei Ohtani is like a cross between Jim Palmer and Frank Robinson.
This is absurd beyond belief. Shohei Ohtani pitches like first-ballot Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer and bats like first-ballot Hall of Fame batter Frank Robinson.
At this point, Shohei Ohtani and Robinson have nearly identical extra-base hits, on-base percentage, and home run totals. Comparable to Palmer, who made 24 bullpen appearances in his first 86 games, he has had a nearly identical start to his career on the pitch.
Naturally, compared to when Palmer started playing in the 1960s, strikeouts are much more common in today’s game. Even yet, only seven pitchers—Yu Darvish, Shane Bieber, Dwight Gooden, Tim Lincecum, Hideo Nomo, Mark Prior, and Kerry Wood—have ever struck out more batters in their first 86 games than Shohei Ohtani.
Shohei Ohtani isn’t officially eligible to enter the Hall of Fame just yet. Until he plays a single game in 2027 and completes the required ten seasons of playing in the Hall of Fame, he will not be eligible.
But really, in their first 701 games at bat, just 13 players hit more home runs, and in their first 86 outings on the mound, only seven pitchers struck out more batters? Jim Palmer plus Frank Robinson combined? Shohei Ohtani is traveling at twice the pace of any other person along the Hall of Fame Highway.
| Player | HR | RBI | 2B | 3B | XBH | SLG | OPS |
| Ohtani | 169 | 427 | 123 | 28 | 320 | .556 | .920 |
| Robinson | 157 | 427 | 136 | 24 | 317 | .547 | .923 |
| Player | W-L | Pct. | ERA | IP | BB | SO |
| Ohtani | 38-19 | .667 | 3.01 | 481.2 | 173 | 608 |
| Palmer | 37-17 | .685 | 3.00 | 492 | 220 | 346 |
