During the offseason, players can make money on the open market. But there is a risk associated with any team purchases made this spring.
Let’s look at which rookies may not live up to the high expectations that come with a big contract as the 2024 NFL free agency frenzy approaches.
Let’s pay more attention to expectations than to performance. The teams that overspend in March usually do so out of need and impatience; perhaps in the future, the NFL will hold the draft before free agency. However, the veterans gain from this offseason pace, and there’s nothing wrong with taking the bag from clubs that are careless or desperate.
Although there is always hope when forming a new relationship, many partnerships that are formed in free agency end up failing. (Finding 12 poor contracts from the last free agency wasn’t difficult.)
These ten free agents from this year’s frenzy may not have a successful relationship with their new clubs.
10. Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Wilson is only getting paid $1.2 million for a one-year contract with the Steelers, which is an incredible deal for a starting quarterback, so I debated whether or not to include him on this list. The issue is that Wilson should have been competing with Justin Fields, whom the Steelers acquired in a trade for just a conditional 2025 sixth-round pick, another steal, but instead, they made Wilson the starter this offseason.
The Steelers added two strong signal-callers without having to start from scratch with a rookie quarterback; other teams that need a quarterback but do not have a high first-round pick ought to take note of this model. However, Pittsburgh would be well to divide Wilson’s and Fields’ early snap totals. Wilson has not played well the last two seasons and is unlikely to return to his former Seattle form. Fields has potential and the strong roster of the Steelers might work wonders for him. He might still be chosen for the position, but everything depends on time, and it doesn’t seem right to take over for a failing team in October.
9. Robert Hunt, OG, Carolina Panthers
Hunt is the kind of tough blocker that every rookie quarterback needs; he keeps his signal-caller from taking unnecessary hits. Hunt’s placement in the middle of the Panthers’ offensive line will help Bryce Young. However, the Panthers spent an outrageous $100 million over five years, with $63 million guaranteed, overpaying for his services.
Hunt, 27, who missed out on making an All-Pro team and a Pro Bowl in his first four seasons with the Miami Dolphins, may have more pressure now that he has a big contract. To justify this large salary, Hunt will now have to play like the NFL’s best guard. Although that’s a high standard, if Young performs well in Year 2 and takes a lot fewer sacks than the 62 he took in the previous campaign, the Panthers probably won’t mind.
8. Tyron Smith, OT, New York Jets
Smith’s quiet market helped the Jets sign him to a one-year contract at $6.5 million with a potential $20 million cap. Should Smith earn eight figures in 2024, he will probably maintain his health and perform well as Aaron Rodgers’ left tackle. However, Smith has struggled with numerous ailments over his illustrious career and is about to enter his 34th season. He did not play a full season since 2015.
This signing would appear much better the following month if the Jets select a lineman in the first two rounds of the draft. And with so many tackles in this class, perhaps they would have been better suited to concentrating on the draft instead. However, there’s nothing wrong with having a former All-Pro as insurance on the team after the Jets’ disappointing season.
7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Not only did the defense bear the lion’s share of the blame for the Eagles’ second-half collapse the previous year, but the offense also needed assistance. Barkley’s versatility should benefit Jalen Hurts and company, but it wouldn’t be shocking if, after five games of the season, beat writers for the Eagles are writing about how the team is trying to find ways to include Barkley more in the offense.
Barkley, who inked a three-year, $37.5 million contract with Philadelphia, will be paid less than running backs Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor in 2024. Seeing Barkley, 27, play alongside McCaffrey and Taylor is difficult to watch. Throughout his career, he has battled injuries. In ’23, he had a difficult season, averaging just 3.9 yards per run. Barkley is older than Taylor and hasn’t been as explosive as McCaffrey in a few years. Although Kamara hasn’t lived up to the contract extension he signed with the New Orleans Saints, he may be just as effective as Kamara.
6. Patrick Queen, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Queen is a physically strong downhill linebacker with outstanding coverage skills. He matches the Steelers’ play style and a need. However, there are certain risks involved in giving Queen a three-year, $41 million contract. Before having a breakthrough season in 2023, the 2020 first-round selection of the Baltimore Ravens had three difficult seasons.
Queen will not be able to play alongside Roquan Smith in Pittsburgh since his rookie contract did not have his fifth-year option exercised. Oddly enough, Queen’s play improved after settling into a rhythm next to Smith and comprehending Mike Macdonald’s defensive strategy. Maybe Queen needed a few years to settle in before he could succeed in Pittsburgh behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
5. Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
The 2022 rushing champion Jacobs, who will make almost $14 million this year, inked a good four-year, $48 million contract with plenty of money upfront. It’s a year-to-year agreement, and the Packers could free up $2 million in cap space if they decide to remove Jacobs after the 2019 season.
Jacobs’ compensation, which is comparable to what running backs made around four years ago, benefits both parties. However, from a personnel and budgetary aspect, this decision is nonsensical. There was no need for a workhorse back in Jordan Love. Instead of spending $14 million, the team could have matched AJ Dillon, who re-signed on a one-year contract worth $2.7 million, with a rookie or another experienced running back.
Love and a couple of other quality pass catchers are helping the Packers become more successful. They now need to figure out how to include Jacobs significantly, which would throw off the camaraderie from the previous season. The 26-year-old Jacobs has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing four games just last year.
4. Leonard Williams, IDL, Seattle Seahawks
Williams may have benefited from the fact that the Seahawks didn’t want to lose him after half of the season and spent a second-round selection to get him in a deal with the New York Giants. Williams was re-signed by the Seahawks to a three-year, $64.5 million contract as a show of faith.
Williams is set to begin his 30th season, and the Seahawks’ dismal defense from the previous campaign made the move risky. Williams performed well on an individual basis and might do so under new head coach Macdonald, who was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens the previous two seasons. The Seahawks are relying on Macdonald to bolster an overpriced defense that features Williams and Dre’Mont Jones, who each earn over $17 million a year. The signing of Jones didn’t produce many successful outcomes in the previous campaign.
3. Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Minnesota Vikings
Following the losses of Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter via free agency, the Vikings could afford to take a gamble on a young player with promise. Although he signed a four-year, $76 million contract, Greenard has only had one standout season in his career, coming off a career-high 12.5 sacks with the Houston Texans in the previous campaign. In his first three seasons combined, he only recorded 10.5 sacks.
Greenard will not be traveling to Minnesota with Texans coach DeMeco Ryans or the league’s current defensive rookie of the year, Will Anderson Jr. The 26-year-old Greenard will have to be the Vikings’ top defensive player. He has also had medical issues, missing nine games in 2022 as a result. The Vikings may get a good deal on this if Greenard lives up to his potential.
2. Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
If the Jaguars had re-signed Calvin Ridley, Davis’ free-agent signing could have appeared more advantageous, but even in that case, they would have paid too much for a player who was needed in a particular way. A few years ago, during the postseason, Davis scored four touchdowns against the Chiefs, demonstrating his exceptional blocking skills in important games. However, he has played in far too few quiet games for the Buffalo Bills, which didn’t stand out because he was still a competent blocker.
With Calvin Ridley gone, Davis will be expected to be the team’s second-best target after Christian Kirk, who isn’t a real No. 1 wide receiver. Davis can’t afford to have a quiet game. Davis committed to the Jaguars for three years for $39 million. To replace Davis, the Bills signed Curtis Samuel to a $24 million, three-year contract.
1. Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley joined Will Levis and the Titans as the number-one wide receiver after leaving Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. The team could regret this contract in a year or two, but there’s nothing wrong with adding a great wide receiver to support a quarterback in his second year.
It makes sense that the Jaguars didn’t match the enormous four-year, $92 million contract that Calvin Calvin Ridley, who turns thirty later this year, inked with the Titans. Ridley brings too many worries with him for that contract, including performance, age, and availability. For the Jaguars last season, he participated in every game, something he did just once in his five seasons with the Falcons. However, Ridley had some costly drops while playing for the Jaguars and had trouble picking up Doug Pederson’s scheme. Perhaps the risks associated with signing Calvin Ridley will be worth it to play under incoming Titans coach Brian Callahan.
