This winter, the Dodgers recruited Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, but it wasn’t enough to take first place.
Both spring training and extension season are drawing near. MLB teams often utilize November, December, and January to bolster their rosters. They start concentrating on keeping their own players in February and March. Between now and Opening Day, expect to see a number of players sign long-term extensions instead of pursuing free agency.
Corbin Carroll (eight years, $111 million), Andrés Giménez (seven years, $106.5 million), Cristian Javier (five years, $64 million), Manny Machado (eleven years, $350 million), and Keibert Ruiz (eight years, $50 million) were among the players that inked extensions last spring. With his mammoth 11-year, $288.7 million contract, Bobby Witt Jr. opened this year’s extension season. Jose Altuve followed with his five-year, $125 million agreement.
In light of this, let’s examine the best contenders for extensions this spring. I should point out that Pete Alonso and Juan Soto are not included in this. Alonso is expected to become a free agent, according to Mets president David Stearns, while Soto appears determined to try free agency following the season. At some time, may he sign an extension? Indeed. Will he complete it in time for Opening Day? Most likely not. We’ll take care of Soto (as well as Alonso) later.
These ten noteworthy non-Soto extension possibilities are now arranged alphabetically.
1. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
During the 1990s, the Guardians, along with players like Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga, and Albert Belle, were the ones that initiated the trend of player extensions. All of them signed long-term contracts as young players, extending their stay in Cleveland beyond the typical six-year team control period. The Guardians are still locking up their young players quite a bit.
Bibee is a likely choice for Cleveland’s next deal because he was the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up the previous season. The 2021 fifth-round selection is comparable to Shane Bieber in that he was a commanding starter in college who became a better player under coaching. To put it plainly, Bibee is among the finest young pitchers in the league, and it’s always worthwhile to lock up such guys.
Potential extension: Despite making his debut in late April, Bibee, who will shortly turn 25 years old, was granted a full year of service time in 2023 due to his second-place result in the Rookie of the Year poll. He would then be five years away from having free agency. The Braves granted Spencer Strider six years and $75 million with a club option, while the Reds handed Hunter Greene six years and $53 million at that service time level. Bibee would be wise to choose anything in that range.
2. C William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
The trade of Contreras could have been the finest offseason decision for 2022–2023. The Brewers acquired Joel Payamps, Contreras, and another pitcher in addition to Esteury Ruiz for, well, Esteury Ruiz. With 17 home runs and an 11th-place finish in the NL MVP vote, Contreras is controlled by Milwaukee through the 2027 campaign. Ruiz only swiped a significant number of bases.
The departure of manager Craig Counsell, the trade of Corbin Burnes, and the injury that prevented Brandon Woodruff from playing will put the Brewers through a period of upheaval. It seems sense that Contreras, along with outfielders Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio, among others, will be a part of the new core going forward. A competent 26-year-old catcher is a valuable and uncommon find.
Potential extension: Contreras has four years left before becoming a free agent, and not many catchers have committed to long-term deals at that point in their careers. With all due respect, Contreras isn’t Buster Posey; Posey lasted nine years and made $167 million. Buster Posey was the last. Sean Murphy, who was acquired in the Contreras/Ruiz three-team deal, will make six years and fifty-eight million dollars during his last four years of team control and his first two years of free agency. That may draw Contreras’s interest.
3. RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
After an unexpected run to the World Series in the previous season, the D-backs proceeded to improve in the summer, as is customary for teams who make it that far. In recent weeks, they re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and added Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suárez to their roster. Right now, locking up Gallen seems to be the most important thing.
The bad news is that Scott Boras, who represents Zac Gallen, has a reputation for driving hard bargains. Although not immediately urgent, this is vital business. Gallen will spend the next two seasons under team supervision. It’s not as if this season will mark his free agent status. That being said, the D-backs would want to sign him to a long-term contract as soon as possible.
4. RHP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Besides Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, the Mariners have two young starters who deserve contract extensions, although Gilbert is a year closer to free agency, making him a top priority. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has been a workhorse since his MLB debut in May 2021 (Gilbert ranks 13th in pitching since his debut) and has shown the ability to limit walks and misses with the bat.
Potential extension: Gilbert is a Super Two, meaning he will go through arbitration four times rather than the customary three, and he is four years away from free agency. This increases his earning capacity and bargaining strength. Luis Severino is the only pitcher to have inked a long-term contract at that service time level in the previous 12 years; he obtained a deal for $40 million with a club option for a fifth year. That was about five years ago, so factor in inflation and you have the basis for a Gilbert extension.
5. RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Finally, a young pitcher for the Pirates has reached his potential in Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller found his groove with the Pirates after seeing players such as Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, and Gerrit Cole succeed elsewhere. Since adding a sinker in the middle of the 2022 season, Keller has been a better-than-average major leaguer. Thankfully, he’s amenable to a postponement.
Keller declared last summer, “I’ve only really known Pittsburgh, so that’s all I really know.” “Ideally, I would like to work here for as long as feasible for my entire career. It’s great to see some of the main players, like Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, be locked up. I’d like to take part in it.
The Pirates just extended the contracts of Hayes and Reynolds, and they will shortly add Paul Skenes, the No. 1 selection in 2023, to the rotation to join Keller. The potential of the next Pirates squad is evident. Keller has two years left before becoming a free agent, so time is running out. He will be increasingly inclined to explore other options as he approaches free agency.
Potential extension: Although Keller has a far lesser history as a high-end starter, he is at the same service time level as Gallen and Lopez. A deal more akin to Kyle Freeland’s $64.5 million, five-year deal with the Rockies seems more fitting. Keller has a contract in place for $5.4 million through 2024. He reaches Freeland’s deal by adding $59.1 million and four more years to that already.
6. 3B Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
The top selection in the 2017 draft finally played on the field long enough for his skills to be fully showcased last season. Royce Lewis struck.After overcoming his second torn ACL last year, he returned to play in 239 plate appearances, batting 309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs and good contact rates. Then, in six postseason games, he hit four home runs. Lewis, who is only 24 years old, has a promising future.
On the other hand, Lewis has a long history of injuries, including two tears to his right ACL and oblique problems in the minor leagues that will recur in 2023. The good news is that Lewis has not had any chronic problems (such as ongoing shoulder or back pain) and has recovered from his second torn ACL last year. We’re still waiting for his first season at full health.
Potential extension: Lewis will almost definitely qualify as a Super Two in the upcoming offseason. He is five years away from free agency. When Ke’Bryan Hayes signed his seven-year, $80 million contract with the Pirates, he was coming from a wrist injury and five years away from free agency, but he was not expected to be a Super Two. With Lewis’ longer history of injuries, perhaps a downward adjustment to something like six years and $50 million is more appropriate?
7. LHP Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins
Jesus Luzardo pitched at a level that was almost ace-caliber in 2023, finally putting together a complete and healthy season. Here, talent has never been the deciding factor. All that had to be determined was if Luzardo could continue playing, which he did last season. After Tommy John surgery, Sandy Alcantara is expected to miss 2024; hence, Luzardo will take over as Miami’s ace.
Pitchers with a history of injuries, such as Luzardo, are particularly risky to extend because of the high inherent risk of injury. Luzardo has a history of injuries, which is the strongest indicator of potential future ailments. Who will the Marlins send an invitation to, if not someone with this much talent? Premium lefties are in high demand.
Potential extension: Luzardo is in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two and has three years remaining before becoming a free agent. A starter at this service time level hasn’t signed an extension in a very long time. When Cristian Javier inked his five-year, $64 million contract last spring, he wasn’t a Super Two, but he was three years away from free agency. Is it a fair standard to use?
8. IF Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
We’ll concentrate on Matt McLain, who was perhaps the team’s top player a year ago, but the Reds have a number of young talents worth extending, such Andrew Abbott and Elly De La Cruz. Uncertain about how the Reds will arrange Jeimer Candelario and all these young infielders in one infield, I don’t sure, but it shouldn’t prevent McLain from returning. Before you build around him, sign him.
Remember that the Reds have a track record of pushing their finest young players. It all started with Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and others. This offseason, they have invested a significant sum of money on free players including Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, and Candelario. This group is prepared to compete. To make sure McLain is a long-term member, it would be prudent to extend his contract.
Potential extension: McLain is still six years away from free agency because he was called up in late May, which prevented him from accruing a full year of service in 2023. McLain feels that Corbin Carroll’s eight-year, $111 million agreement is a bit excessive. But Michael Harris II’s seventy-two million dollar, eight-year contract may work. At the same service time level as McLain, he signed the contract.
9. C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Signing Rutschman to a long-term contract should be the primary priority for the upcoming ownership group. And Gunnar Henderson,too. However, Rutschman, a switch-hitting catcher with excellent fielding, is closer to free agency and with a more limited skill set. Recall what John Angelos, the departing owner, stated about the O’s needing to boost costs in order to pay for extensions? Goodbye.
Though I expect rumors about Rutschman and the O’s talking about an extension to soon surface, there haven’t been any as of yet. The team will at least follow up to see whether Rutschman is still interested. The deal for Corbin Burnes was a wise and necessary decision. Signing the franchise catcher is the best course of action for the new owners if they truly want to win over the fan base.
Potential extension: Buster Posey inked a nine-year, $167 million contract with the Giants, and Rutschman is four years away from free agency at that point. By then, Posey had won two World Series rings and been named MVP, but it was also eleven years earlier, so inflation had to be taken into account. The Orioles would succeed if they could convince Rutschman to accept a nine-year contract worth $167 million. Though Posey’s use on a contract comp is not unreasonable, Rutschman’s hardware is insufficient.
10. LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
A year ago, Justin Steele’s breakout season won him a spot in the All-Star Game and fifth place in the NL Cy Young voting. Now, the Cubs are poised to make a run at the World Series. He will lead a rotation that eventually will include top prospects like Cade Horton and Jordan Wicks completely. He has four more years of team control remaining.
When questioned about the likelihood of an extension in December, Steele responded, “That’s something the team has to decide,” per The Athletic. “All I can do is go out and continue to perform and do what I do.
Steele represents a significant player development victory for the Cubs while being a mediocre prospect. They struggled to develop arms for a considerable amount of time, which limited their window of opportunity after winning the 2016 World Series. However, it appears like things are back on track today. That ought to support Steele’s future productivity. Potential contract: Steele is four years away from Super Two free agency, much like Gilbert.
In July, he turns 28 as well. Any contract beyond his team control years would purchase his age-32 season and beyond, since Chicago currently owns the rights to his age-28–31 seasons. Those might be years of deterioration. It makes sense to stick with Steele year after year. Nevertheless, the Cubs would have financial certainty during his arbitration years and the potential to sign a free agent year if Severino and the team agreed to a four-year, $40 million contract with a club option.
Some noteworthy contenders for an extension: D 3B Bryson Stott and LHP Ranger Suárez of the Phillies, OF Ryan Jeffers of the Twins, RHP Michael King of the Padres, LHP Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, LHP Cole Ragans of the Royals, LHP Framber Valdez and catcher Kyle Tucker are Astros.
