Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers are sure to generate a lot of excitement this spring, but there are other intriguing stories to follow in the run-up to Opening Day.
This offseason, the two top hitters over the previous three years switched teams. For baseball marketers, it was a happy accident that they ended up with glamor clubs in the two largest cities.
On December 7, Juan Soto was traded to the New York Yankees. Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers four days later as a free agent.
Approximately 1,800 players are vying for the 780 Opening Day roster slots as spring training gets underway. There are just as many stories. For example, Dusty Baker and Terry Francona are not team managers for the first time in twenty-two years. Two first-time managers among seven new hiring, Joe Espada of the Houston Astros and Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians, have taken their places.
However, few stories are as significant as those of Soto to the Yankees and Ohtani to the Dodgers. As the Yankees missed the playoffs and lost the World Series for the fourteenth time in a row—the longest drought since they won the series in 1921—Soto is expected to assist the team in regaining its glory.
Shohei Ohtani, who spent six years as a Los Angeles Angels minor leaguer, is aware that the Dodgers’ ultimate objective is to win the pennant. This is especially true given that their previous three seasons’ 327 victories have evaporated into a 6–12 postseason record, and they have been defeated by teams with a combined 56 fewer wins each time they have had home field advantage.
There are just 63 players that have 1,500 at-bats during the last three seasons. Shohei Ohtani and Soto are the top two among them with OPS+ scores of 161 and 160, respectively. They are ahead of everyone else until Ohtani’s teammate Freddie Freeman arrives at position 151.
Shohei Ohtani can concentrate only on hitting this year while he heals from Tommy John surgery. That’s a dangerous idea for opposition pitchers given the deep lineup of the Dodgers led by Mariana Trench, especially with Ohtani coming off of a career-best offensive season despite making 23 appearances in the pitching pen. The trio of Mookie Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani may be among the finest in history, and it might lead to a breakthrough season and career for Will Smith.295 hitters with runners in scoring position can expect traffic as heavy as that which leaves Dodger Stadium.
We are eager to witness it, which is why it is fitting that the Dodgers play Soto’s former team, the San Diego Padres, in Seoul, South Korea, on March 20–21 to kick off the season early.
Meanwhile, let’s savor the relaxed tempo of spring training, when prospects with football stats introduce themselves, SPF means more than OPS, and sprawling out on an outfield berm beats box seats. Here is your spring training must-know guide, along with the major headlines and notable figures from Florida and Arizona, to help you get ready for baseball:
The rotation of the Dodgers
The Los Angeles camp features starting pitchers such as Walker Buehler, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ohtani, who is not allowed to pitch this year, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who never started more than 26 games in a season in Japan and did so on five or six days of rest, Clayton Kershaw, who was sidelined until the second half of the season due to shoulder surgery, Tyler Glasnow, who has never thrown more than 120 innings.
Also Bobby Miller, who threw a career-high 138 2/3 innings last year, Emmet Sheehan, who threw a career-high 123 1/3 innings last year, Ryan Yarbrough, a spot starter who, at age 32, has never thrown more than 155 innings, and James Paxton, who is 35 and has made 25 starts over the past four years.
That makes nine pitchers, and none of them are reliable enough to pitch 162 innings.
Issue? Not an issue.
The Dodgers operate in this manner. They reduce workloads by taking extra days off in between beginnings and by going deep into them.
The Dodgers have only had nine qualifying starters in eight years since Dave Roberts took over as manager in 2016, and none more than twice. Only the Angels started pitchers with four days rest less frequently than the Dodgers over those eight years.
And who had, in those eight years of reducing the workload of starters, the greatest record in baseball?
The Dodgers, indeed. And with 38 more victories than anybody else, it’s not even close.
They are proficient in their field. With the specific goal of having four new hires ready for October, they taper work for six months.
The Orioles rotation
This is a different story. Even with Corbin Burnes—aside from Soto, the most significant trade piece—it might not be sufficient. Due to a UCL sprain, Kyle Bradish is out, while John Means is still dealing with elbow pain following his Tommy John surgery. Though it’s a huge ask given that Baltimore upped Grayson Rodriguez’s innings at age 23 by a staggering 60% over his previous best, the 23-year-old has the makings of an ace. That’s particularly worrisome for someone with exceptional mechanics. Bruce Zimmermann, Jonathan Heasley, Cole Irvin, and Tyler Wells are among the Orioles’ depth players.
First-Year Players
A baseball season had never before had ten players smash more than ten home runs in their first season of play, prior to 2015. It occurred six times in the eight years that have passed since last year.
Making an impact doesn’t need any prior experience. The players to keep an eye on this spring are shortstops, who might make an Opening Day team or one shortly after. The following players have been named: second baseman Colt Keith of the Detroit Tigers; pitchers Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs, and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates; outfielders Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers, Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers, and Jung Hoo Lee of the San Francisco Giants.
New rules — (yes, again)
With runners on, the 20-second pitch timer has been shortened to 18 seconds. Considering that pitchers began last year’s deliveries with an average of 7.3 seconds remaining in the clock (and that games became more languid as the season went on), it’s hardly a huge change.
Second, the runner is now permitted to use the whole width of the dirt lane in the running lane to first base rather than just the little strip on the foul side that touches the foul line.
Thirdly, if an infielder blocks a runner from a base with their body while they are “not in the act of fielding the ball,” they will be cited for obstruction. It’s a declared crackdown on the current regulation rather than a new one. In essence, it implies that when getting ready for a tag, you may no longer drop to your knee and block the base with your leg.
The Key Yankees
No, it’s not Soto, who is perhaps the most reliable top player out there. (And no, Yankee Stadium’s short porch won’t produce a record-breaking home run season. When Soto is not a pull hitter, he performs at his peak. His career home runs have only been hit to the pull side in 38% of cases.)
To reverse declines, the Yankees will need DJ LeMahieu, 35, and Carlos Rodón, 31.
After a difficult start to his new team the previous season that resulted in a back injury and a waffled fastball, Rodón entrenched himself with the Yankees conditioning staff this winter. He managed just 14 starts.
Over the previous three years, LeMahieu’s bat speed and exit velocity have decreased, leading to a decrease in his confidence to smash the ball deep, which has reduced his once-prolific inside-out swing (career-low 27.5% opposite field rate) and increased swing and miss (career high 22% strikeout rate last year).
Mildly hot corner battles
What’s going on at third base? Last year, third basemen had the second-lowest average ever (.244), the lowest since 1968. A 12-year low was reached with just 10 players starting 120 games at third. The last two seasons have had an on-base percentage of.316 at third base, which is the lowest it has been in back-to-back seasons since 1916 and ’17. Hence, there are a lot of available employment.
At third base, where they also have Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni, the Cubs will be watching Christopher Morel.
Jace Jung, Andy Ibañez, Matt Vierling, and Zach McKinstry are the options available to the Tigers.
Brett Baty is the team that the New York Mets are leaning toward, but Zack Short, Joey Wendle, and Mark Vientos can push him.
In addition to multi-position alternatives Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement, the Blue Jays added Eduardo Escobar to their already crowded roster.
Welcome Back
The focus will be on the spring training performances of pitchers Tyler Matzek of the Atlanta Braves, Edwin Díaz of the Mets, shortstop Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Dodgers shortstop Gavin Lux, and pitcher Buehler. All of these players missed the previous season due to injury.
Additionally, keep a watch on Angels outfielder Mike Trout, who only participated in one game following the Fourth of July due to a fractured thumb bone. Since he was 24, Trout, 32, has not finished a season with 500 at-bats. He has missed 34 percent of the Angels’ games over the previous seven seasons.
Position shifts
Shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts received contracts for $340 million and $280 million, respectively, from the Padres, but they were demoted to make room for Ha-Seong Kim, a $28 million signing. After just one season of play, Bogaerts will shift to second base.
In other news, Betts takes over as the Dodgers’ (largely) daily second baseman, while the Yankees are willing to put Aaron Judge at risk more often in center field, where he started just 16 times in 2022 but 74 times in his career.
The Boras Five
pitchers, Cody Bellinger (first base/outfield), Matt Chapman (third base), Blake Snell (pitcher) and Jordan Montgomery (designated hitter) are still unsigned. Agent Scott Boras represents all of them, and he assures them that they will be prepared to get right into the game when they finally sign. While unsigned players at the start of camp is not unprecedented, it is unusual to have so many great players still available. Four of the top eight free agents this season and about 25% of the $3.3 billion free agency market are represented by the Boras Five.
The right call
Since 2007, Jen Pawol, 47, has been the first female umpire for Major League spring training games. Accordingly, Pawol, an eight-year veteran of minor league umpiring, will be added to the MLB Call-Up list, a group of Triple-A umpires from whom MLB selects its backups or extra umpires in case of emergencies like injuries or vacations.
And with that, Pawol will just need to make one phone call to make history as the first female big league umpire. Pawol played softball as a catcher at Hofstra University and graduated from West Milford (N.J.) High School. Before attending an MLB/MiLB umpire tryout camp in 2015, she officiated NCAA softball.
Where’s Bubba?
Will travel, have speed. That is the tale of 25-year-old outfielder Bubba Thompson, a former first-round selection and one of baseball’s quickest players. (The only players that ran faster last year were Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr., Dairon Blanco, and Elly de la Cruz.) In the last six months, Thompson has played for five different teams: the Yankees for fifteen days, the Twins for fourteen days, and the Reds for two stints, which is his most recent team.
Why is there so much movement? Thompson’s history of high strikeouts and minimal power makes him an unlikely daily player. However, with his age, speed (he steals bases with a minor league success rate of 83%) and developing plate discipline, Thompson may be the ideal extra outfielder in the current regulations that give his abilities greater worth.
Where in the world is Diego
Diego Castillo, 26, an infielder, has been dumped five times in the last seven weeks by clubs (the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mets, Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Orioles), in a manner reminiscent of Bubba. This is after he was moved twice in the previous two years.
The last time the Orioles dumped Castillo was on Sunday, two days after they had picked him up following an eight-day stint with the Phillies. Stay tuned.
